Category: Race Preview

FIS Ski Jumping World Cup - Nizhny Tagil - Event 1

FIS Ski Jumping World Cup – Nizhny Tagil – Event 1

The Season So Far

As of 30th of December, we are only 3 events into 2018/19 Ski Jumping season, however, the results we have seen from the ski jumpers so far are far from what we have expected. Now let’s take a look at what happened in the events so far.


The opening event of the season took place at Wisla, Poland, which was the venue of the first event of the season for the 2nd time in a row. In the opening event, we saw Evgeniy Klimov convincingly achieving his 1st win in his career. With 263.4 points, he ended 6,7 points ahead of Leyhe Stephan, who just like Klimov achieved a great career result. In the third place, it was Ryoyu Kobayashi with 255.6 points who recorded his 1st podium finish with the 3rd place in Wisla. Kamil Stoch, the favorite and last year’s champion ended in a disappointing 4th place with 255.3 points.

As for the team event, it was Poland who celebrated a close win. At the 2nd place, we saw Germany, followed by Austria at 3rd. After the first 6 jumps, Poland was leading in front of Germany, but after a terrible jump from Dawid Kubacki (114.5m) they were passed by their western neighbors. So it all came down to the last 2 jumps; Richard Freitag and Kamil Stoch. Stoch landed at 129m, however, Freitag could not perform as well. He jumped 123.5m which saw Poland once again getting the lead and ultimately the win. Our predictions in the first event did not perform as well as we had hoped. With 10 predictions, we saw a 40% win rate, -2.01 units of profit and -13.4% ROI.

The second event of the season took place in Ruka, Finland. However we won’t talk about it here, but rather mention it down below, when we will take a look at the upcoming event. Still we can mention our betting performance:
With 6 predictions, we saw a 50% win rate, 4.22 units of profit and 46.9% ROI. In total, with 16 predictions, we were standing at 43.8% win rate, 2.21 units of profit and 9.2% ROI.

The second day In Ruka was the 3rd chance for Stoch to win the first event of the season, but once again he failed to do so. Instead, it was Ryoyu Kobayashi, who celebrated his 2nd win of the season and his career. He finished 22 points in front of Wellinger Andreas and 25 points in front of Stoch. All of our predictions covered Stoch; To win, Top 3 finish and Top 6 finish. With his 3rd place finish, we still got out with a profit. With 3 predictions, we saw a 66.7% win rate, 1.28 units of profit and 21.3% ROI.

In total, with 19 predictions, we are at 47.4% win rate, 3.49 units of profit and 11.6% ROI.


Nizhny Tagil – Event 1 – Preview & Predictions

With 3 ski jumping events behind us and Ryoyu Kobayashi currently leading the overall standings, we are traveling to Nizhny Tagil, Russia, where the athletes will compete on Tramplin Stork jumping hill. In the last event of the season, the athletes competed in Day 2 in Ruka, Finland. However we won’t look only at how they performed in the 2nd day, but the 1st day as well.

The second event of the season took place in Ruka, Finland. At that venue, we saw 2 events, with the first one taking place on 24th of November and the second one only a day later. In the first day, Klimov was considered a favorite, as bookmakers thought he will repeat his success from Wisla, however, that was not the case. Klimov ended 31st with subpar performance, which was far worse from what we have seen in Wisla. Kamil Stoch was also considered a favorite to win because he needed to fix his impression from the first event. And he did.. somewhat. Stoch finished 2nd, 2.1 points behind Ryoyu Kobayashi, who won the 1st event of his career. This also resulted in Kobayashi climbing to the top of overall standings. The second day In Ruka was the 3rd chance for Stoch to win the first event of the season, but once again he failed to do so. Instead, it was Ryoyu Kobayashi, who celebrated once again. He finished 22 points in front of Wellinger Andreas and 25 points in front of Stoch.

The upcoming event at Tramplin Stork will take place on 1st of December and it will be the first time the athletes will visit Russia this season. Nizhny Tagil is a regular World Cup host ever since 2014. In total, we have seen 6 events at this venue, so in December it will mark the 7th time Nizhny Tagil will host the World Cup event. Up until now, Severin Freund has the most wins at this venue (2). Last year, it was Andreas Wellinger who celebrated a win, with Richard Freitag at 2nd and Stefan Kraft at the 3rd place.

Athlete Pinnacle Odds Bet365 Odds Pinnacle Odds (vs the Field)
Ryoyu Kobayashi 2.27 2.25 1.588
Kamil Stoch 4.30 4.50 1.194
Andreas Wellinger 6.46 7.00 1.093
Evgeny Klimov / 16.00 /

Of course, we must start with the current leader in the World Cup standings, Ryoyu Kobayashi. This Japanese ski jumper has claimed his first 2 WC wins last week, by winning both large hill events in Ruka. He also finished 3rd in the opening event in Wisla. As of now, he is 70 points in front of Kamil Stoch in overall standings and 115 in front of Piotr Zyla. The upcoming event can he historic for Kobayashi. With a podium finish, he will become the first ski jumper in history to finish on the podium in all of the 4 opening events since Gregor Schlierenzauer in 2008/2009. Schlierenzauer also went on to win the overall title that year, so if we are a bit superstitious here, this could be a big win for Kobayashi. As for his nations records, with a win at Nizhny Tagil, Kobayashi will become the first Japanese ski jumper to claim 3 individual wins in a single season, and that is only 4 events in! With odds of 2.20 for Kobayashi to win, the odds are too low for us to consider betting on. He is without a doubt in a great form, but as said, the odds offered are simply too low for us.

Kamil Stoch is currently 70 points behind Ryoyu Kobayashi in the overall standings, he needs a win in Russia to close the gap. He finished on the podium in both events in Ruka, but that won’t be enough if he wishes to win a third World Cup title this season. The two events in Russia are a great chance for Stoch to get his 32nd and 33rd World Cup win, which would tie him with Weissflog at 5th place in all-time World Cup wins (33). Last year, he finished 15th and 7th in Nizhny Tagil. This year we will be hoping he performs better, as he has not yet claimed a first podium finish in the World Cup in Russia. His best performance at this venue was back in 2015 when Stoch finished 6th.

With his 2nd place finish in Ruka, Andreas Wellinger claimed his first podium finish in the World Cup this season. His last individual win came just a year ago, on 3rd of December 2017 at Nizhny Tagil. Interestingly enough, 4 out of 6 events in Nizhny Tagil have been won by German ski jumpers (2014/15/17/17), with the last years’ event seeing 2 german ski jumpers on the podium (Wellinger, Freitag). Bookmakers put Wellinger at 6.46 which is about fair, as he has not won an event in a year, but how much does his win at this venue add to the value? He is a good athlete, but nonetheless, we don’t think he is capable of winning here again.

Market Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
Outright Kamil Stoch 4.30 4.50  1 Unit Pending
Podium Finish Stefan Kraft / 8.00  1 Unit Pending
Podium Finish Richard Freitag / 10.00  1 Unit Pending
H2H (Johann Andre Forfang v Stefan Kraft) Stefan Kraft 2.02 2.10 1 Unit Pending
FIS Ski Jumping World Cup - Ruka Day 2

FIS Ski Jumping World Cup – Ruka 2018 – Event 2 Update

The first day of Ski jumping event in Ruka is behind us and the athletes are already getting ready for day 2 on the same hill, in hopes to perform better or just as good as they did today.

In the 2nd event of the season, it was Kobayashi who celebrated the win with a 138.5m jump. He totaled 142 points, which was 2.1 more than second-placed Stoch, who jumped his way to the silver medal with a 140.5m jump and 139.9 points. Third place was awarded to Zyla who jumped 135m and got himself 135 points. With those results, Kobayashi is currently leading the overall rankings with 160 points, after his 3rd spot finish in Wisla and a win in Ruka. Stoch, the last years champion is currently 2nd with 130 points and Klimov at 3rd spot with 100 points.

 

The winner of the first event of the season in Wisla, Evgeniy Klimov disappointed with his 121.5m jump, which saw him finishing at 31st spot. He was one of the favorites to win here after his spectacular win in Wisla, but as we suspected he did not perform up to par. Still, we did not expect him to finish that low. He will have a chance to fix his 2nd impression tomorrow when jumpers will compete at the same hill.

Kamil Stoch, last years champion is still without a win this season. He finished 4th in Wisla on the opening event, 0.3 points behind Kobayashi (3rd place). In Ruka, Stoch performed better, finishing 2nd with a 140.5m jump which was 2.1 points less than the Japanese ski jumper who is currently leading the overall standings with 160 points. Kamil Stoch knows he needs to start winning soon and with a good jump on day 1, we expect him to perform on the same level today. As of now, he is 30 points behind leading Royoyu Kobayashi and with a win here, Stoch could reclaim his throne. Despite Stoch winning being highly possible, the opposition this season is fierce and he just might be beaten once more. We expect him to finish at least in the top 6 in the worst case scenario, however a win here would mean a lot to him so expect Stoch to give his all to climb back on the top of overall standings or at least close the gap between him and Kobayashi.

Market – Event 2 Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
Outright Kamil Stoch 4.50 4.50  2 Units Lost
Podium Finish Kamil Stoch / 2.20  2 Units Won
Top 6 Finish Kamil Stoch / 1.44  2 Units Won
FIS Ski Jumping World Cup – Ruka 2018 – Men

FIS Ski Jumping World Cup – Ruka 2018 – Event 1

With the first event of the season behind us, the athletes are traveling north to Finland, where they will measure against each other in Ruka, at Rukatunturi jumping hill. The first match of the season took place in Wisla, on Malinka hill where Klimov Evgeniy celebrated his first win of the season and the first World Cup win of his career. This Russian athlete was considered an underdog but proved his worth with an excellent performance. In the first run, Evgeniy finished his 1st jump with a127.5m and jumped 131.5m in the second jump which cemented his position in the 1st spot with 263.4 points. Stephan Leyhe, who ended 2nd was only 6th after the first jump with a 124.5m jump. However, he improved his jump in the second run, with 130.5m which brought him the 2nd spot, which is his career-best result up until now. Ryoyu Kobayashi ended the match with the furthest jump of 137.5m however his 2nd jump was only 127m. Still, he managed to finish at the 3rd spot only 0.3 points ahead of the favorite Kamil Stoch, which was a career-best result for him as well. The favorite to win the opening match in Wisla was no other than Kamil Stoch, but he severely underperformed in the 2nd run. After the first jump, he was in the 2nd spot (126.5m), but only managed to land at 127m in the second jump which saw him finishing at the bitter 4th spot.

As for the team event in Wisla, which took place on 17th of November, a day before individual jumps, we saw Poland winning their 1st event of the season in a nail-biting end. After the first 6 jumps, Poland was in a lead, which saw many people certain they are going to win. But that soon turned south after Dawid Kubacki jumped only 114.5m in his second jump, which saw Germany taking the lead after Leyhe 126m jump, which resulted in him getting over 20 points more than Kubacki. The event saved the best for last, with the deciding jump being between Richard Freitag and Kamil Stoch. Stoch landed at 129m, which put a lot of pressure on Freitag to snatch the lead back, but he failed to do so with a 123.5m jump. This meant Poland took back the lead they held for most of the event. Despite the loss, the German team performed very well. Sadly for them, the Polish team was better in the end and won their 1st event of the season.  Of course, we can’t forget to mention the 3rd placed Austria and their jumpers; Huber, Aigner, Kraft and Mayboeck. They performed well and were awarded the 3rd spot. The biggest disappointment of the event was Norway, who did not qualify for the finals. The disappointment was not the performance of their athletes, but rather the disqualification of Johansson Robert who wore the wrong suit.

Looking at the next event of Ski Jumping calendar, the athletes will compete in Ruka, more specifically at Rukatunturi ski jumping hill in Kuusamo on 24th of November and 25th of November. This jumping hill is the largest in Finland, with an official record of 148.5m by Eric Frenzel in 2010. Last year, we saw Jernej Damjan winning the event in Ruka, with Johann Andre Forfang in the 2nd place and Andreas Wellinger at 3rd.

Let’s take a look at bookmakers’ favorites in Ruka;

Athlete Pinnacle Odds Bet365 Odds Pinnacle Odds (vs the Field) Bet365 Odds – Top 3 
Kamil Stoch 4.17 5.00 1.204 2.75
Evgeniy Klimov 5.54 5.00 1.124 2.62
Stephan Leyhe 8.00 7.00 1.058 3.00
Ryoyu Kobayashi 8.00 7.00 1.058 3.00

Of course, we must start with Evgeniy Klimov, after a surprising win in Wisla all eyes are on him to see if he can repeat his success in Finland. He became the first Russian athlete to get a win in World Cup, which is a huge success for him and his country. As of now, there are 3 Russian athletes who finished on the podium more times than Evgeniy; Pavel Karelin (3), Denis Komilov (3) and Dimitry Vasiliev (12). Now, will he manage to win the second event of the season? To be fair the first events are almost always full of surprises, with underdogs performing well, whereas the favorites underperform. But this soon normalizes when we get further into the season. His morale is surely high after the win in Wisla, but only that is not enough for him to repeat his success. The competition is tough and after a disappointing performance from Kamil Stoch and others in Wisla, we expect them to fix the mistake and give their all to fix their impressions.

As mentioned, Kamil Stoch did not perform as he wanted in Wisla, with only a 4th spot finish due to bad jump in the 2nd run. With 31 individual World Cup wins in his career and with a win in overall standings last season, we expect more of him than 4th spot and he is well aware of that. With his 31 World Cup wins, he needs 2 more to join Weißflog at 5th spot of the most world cup wins of all time, and he will have a chance to do so in Ruka. Although Stock won 4 individual World Cup events in Finland, he has not yet won in Ruka, where his best result is the 4th place back in 2011. With a win here, he would become the first Polish ski jumper to win an individual World Cup event at a large hill in Ruka. He needs to fix his performance from Wisla so expect a good result from him in Ruka.

The 3rd spot in Wisla was a great start of the season for Ryoyu Kobayashi. This was his 1st podium finish in an individual World Cup event, which is a great accomplishment, however, he can make it even better with a podium finish in Ruka. If he finished in the top 3 in Finland, that would make him the first Japanese jumper to finish on the podium in the first 2 events of the season. What we expect of him is another great performance, which might not result in the podium finish, but not all good results mean getting a medal.

Richard Freitag, a German ski jumper with a total of 8 individual wins in his career and a 9th spot finish in the Olympic games (both normal and large hill). He has finished 2nd in the overall standings last year, 373 points behind Kamil Stoch, who dominated the season with his performances. Freitag, despite his admirable performance last year finished only 22nd in Wisla with 233.1 points, which was a disappointing result for him, nonetheless, he performed well in the team event, which saw Germany finishing 2nd. Looking at the next event in Ruka, I feel like the odds offered are too high on Freitag. Yes, he did severely underperform in Wisla, but odds of 7.00 for a podium finish are just too high for us to pass on. If Freitag can perform on the level he is capable of a top 3 finish is highly likely and that’s why we see good value in this bet.

Stefan Kraft, an Overall winner in 2016/17, 4th place in last season and a total of 12 individual wins in his career are some of his accomplishments, which put him among the best ski jumpers in this decade. Much like Freitag, Stefan Kraft did not perform on the level we expected of him in Wisla. He finished 21st with 237.8 points, far behind the top 3 athletes. However, much like in the case of Freitag, the odds for Kraft to finish in the top 3 are too high. From the odds offered by bookmakers, it seems they expect the 2nd event going just like the 1st went, which in most cases is not true. Kraft is more than capable of finishing in the top 3 and at odds of 7.00 we will take our chances.

In the upcoming event, we can see Stoch performing on the level he is capable of. In fact, he needs to do so after 4th place in Wisla. I would be surprised if he does not finish in the top 3, despite the fact he has yet won on this hill. As for the previous winner, Klimov, he did perform exceptionally well, but we don’t feel like he will be capable of doing so again. The competition is fierce and with some of the best ski jumpers underperforming in Wisla, they will “step up their game” and fix their poor impression from the first event. In addition, odds offered on Klimov are just too low for us to consider betting on him.

Market – Event 1 Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
Outright Kamil Stoch 4.17 5.00  1 Unit Lost
Podium Finish Kamil Stoch / 2.75  2 Units Won
Podium Finish Richard Freitag / 7.00  1 Unit Lost
Podium Finish Stefan Kraft / 7.00  1 Unit Lost
H2H (Kamil Stoch v Robert Johansson) Kamil Stoch 1.591 1.57  2 Units Won
H2H (Evgeniy Klimov v Ryoyu Kobayashi) Ryoyu Kobayashi 2.270 2.25  2 Units Won

Nonetheless, it should be an interesting event to watch. We will see Stoch and Kobayashi on the verge of achieving a historic result and of course, we all wait to see if Klimov can repeat his success.


We will post predictions for the second event shortly after the first one.

 

FIS Ski Jumping World Cup - Wisla 2018 - Men

FIS Ski Jumping World Cup – Wisla 2018 – Men

November is here and with Halloween behind us, the next big thing to wait for is Christmas and of course the winter season. Some of you wait all year round for the first snowflake to fall down from the sky, and you watch as it slowly covers the hills with snow and before you know it, the ski resorts open their ski slopes to the public. I, on the other hand, do not enjoy the winter and the snow, it’s cold, it’s wet and the worst part is shoveling the snow every day, just so you can get the car from the driveway.  However, there is one thing I look forward, and it’s not the Christmas songs that play on repeat in every store you visit, neither is it all the shopping that “needs” to be done, it’s the start of winter sports season. And out of all the sports, my favorite; Ski Jumping.

Ski jumping as a winter sport constitutes the traditional group of Nordic skiing disciplines. it saw its beginnings in the 19th century in Norway, although there are pieces of evidence of ski jumping from the late 18th century. Either way, you look at it, the ski jumping sport is old and it has evolved throughout the centuries to reach the level we are at now. We won’t go into how it developed in rules and styles, as I don’t find it necessary for this article, however, we will skip 200 years and jump right into the season ahead of us, the 2018/19 season of Ski jumping.

The 2018/19 World Cup season will be the 22nd official season in ski jumping for men and 8th for women. The season will start on 17th October in Wisla for men and in Lillehammer for women. On the other hand, the season will end on 24th March in Planica for men and in Chaykovsky for women.

In between the World Cup season, we will also see FIS Nordic World Ski Championship, which will start on February 20th and last till March the 3rd. Because we will only cover Men’s events this season, I will only focus on their part of the journey for this season and last season. Looking back at last season, it has started in Wisla on 19th of November and ended in Planica on 25th March. In total, we saw 22 individual competitions and 8 team competitions for men. 2017/18 was the first season that saw a new competition being implemented; Planica7. It took place from 22-25 March 2018 in Planica. It lasted 4 days without breaks and it had 4 events; qualification round, 2 individual events, and 1 team event.

The final results were as follows:


 

Match / Season Preview

As mentioned before, men’s season will start in Wisla, Poland, more specifically on the Malinka ski jumping hill. This will be the 2nd season in a row when we will see the opening match of the season on Malinka ski jumping hill. This venue also serves as a regular “World Cup stop” since 2013, so it’s well known by the athletes.

The Malinka hill has opened back in 1933, with a total of 3 renovations up until now (1954, 1970, 2004-2008). As of now, the hill is 134m tall, with the K-point at 120m. Current record holder at this hill is Stefan Kraft with 139m, with Slovenian jumper Peter Prevc holding the unofficial record with 140.5m, which did not count as a result of him touching the ground as he landed.

There were some concerns prior to the season starting, due to very mild temperatures in Poland, but the organizers did a good job and got the HS 134 hill ready for the opening match of the season. With the hill ready, we can expect the official training and qualifications to take place on Friday at 4 pm CET and 6 pm CET.

As for the athletes, the 1st event of the season is always an interesting one to watch, because nobody knows how will athletes stack against each other. The not-knowing just makes the opening event that much more exciting; “will the usual suspects like Richard Freitag, Andreas Wellinger, Kamil Stoch, Daniel-Andre Tande come out on top, or will we see an underdog surprising us all and achieve greatness?”. Well, it’s something we will have to wait and find out.

Let’s take a look at bookmakers’ favorites at Wisla;

Athlete Pinnacle Odds Bet365 Odds Pinnacle Odds (vs the Field) Bet365 Odds – Top 3 
Kamil Stoch 3.00 3.75 1.358 1.61
Robert Johansson 5.00 4.50 1.149 1.80
Stefan Kraft 7.15 7.00 1.075 2.75
Richard Freitag / 12.00 / 4.00

As we can see Kamil Stoch is considered a favorite to win the opening race and he pretty much has a decent chance to do it but considering this is a first match of the season, I would rather look elsewhere. Johansson is priced around 5.00, to low for me to recommend a bet on, while Kraft at 7.15 has a decent chance to surprise. Looking at the others, Freitag, Tande and Forfang will all fancy their chances. Let’s look at some of the athletes we will see this season.

Kamil Stoch was crowned the champion at the end of the season with 1443 points, a total of 373 ahead of 2nd placed Richard Freitag. This marked the 2nd time in his career that he has won the World Cup, after his 1st win in 2013/14 season. In addition to winning the Overall standing, he was also 1st in Four Hills Tournament, Raw Air, Willingen Five and Planica 7. Looking at his Olympic Games performances, Stoch won his 3rd individual gold medal in Pyeongchang alongside a bronze medal in team competition. Due to his spectacular performances in 2017/18 season, it’s no surprise he was also awarded the title of “Nordic Ski King” by The Forum Nordicum. With a total of 31 World Cup wins (9 last season), he is currently at the 6th spot looking at all-time world cup wins. If he manages to repeat his success from last season, he would rise up to 3rd spot with 40 wins, however, he would still be a long way from the record holder Gregor Schlierenzauer, who has a total of 53 wins under his belt.

Richard Freitag has ended his last season (2017/18) in the 2nd place, 373 points behind Stoch. This year, he will hope to win the Overall title, which just slipped from him last season. If he manages to do so, he will be the 4th German who win the Overall title. Up until now only Jens Weissflog, Martin Schmitt and Severin Freund managed to do so. Will he do it? Hard to say.. he was in a close race with Stoch last winter, but in the end, the Polish ski jumper was the one celebrating, with plenty of points to spare. Freitag is without the doubt an excellent ski jumper and is once again expected to be a strong competitor for the top spots.

After a great season in 2016/17, when Stefan Kraft finished 1st in Overall standings, he only managed to finished 4th last year.  He simply couldn’t win as he did not claim a single victory last winter, he did, however, end on the podium 8 times, but that was not nearly enough for an overall title. The 4th place is still a decent result, however, he is capable of winning the title once more. Just like for Freitag, another Overall title would be historic, as it would mean he would join 4 other Austrian jumpers who won the title more than once. Those names include; Andreas Goldberger (3 titles), Thomas Morgenstern (2 titles), Armin Kogler (2 titles) and Gregor Schlierenzauer (2 titles).

Looking at the upcoming season, we are happy to announce we will be able to watch one of the best Norwegian Ski Jumpers, the 24-year-old Daniel-Andre Tande. After major health problems and illness, during this spring, he is back in training and is looking ready to step into the season with high goals in mind. He stated: “We are hoping that these breaks will not be affecting the winter season. I will not worry about it too much and I’m looking forward to the season opener in Wisla. I don’t expect too much of myself but I’m happy that I can compete again. My last competition was the World Cup final in Planica in March” From his training, he is doing well, if we take into consideration, he missed a lot of practice due to illness. However, he does not seem worried about it. Not only that, but he has already set his goals for this season. His goal is to win the 4-Hills Tournament as well as of course the Overall title. As much as I respect his confidence, and although he has been training well, I would not recommend betting on him to win, that is at least in the opening event. The lack of training compared to other athletes, and the illness is expected to have some effect on him and his performances. Still, I do see him finishing at a respectable position, but I would not be comfortable saying it will be the 1st place.

Robert Johansson, also known as “The Flying Mustache” is another great Norwegian ski jumper, who is much like Tande considered one of the best from his country. With a 5th Overall finish last season and 3 Olympic gold medals around his neck it’s hard to say he is not a strong contender for a good finish this season. Now how do we think he will perform in Wisla? Despite the fact he is an excellent athlete, there are other excellent athletes, who are arguably better. So we must look at the odds offered by bookmakers. Pinnacle is offering 5.00 on Robert Johansson to win, which in our opinion is not enough for us to consider betting on him. This might offend some Norwegian readers, but he does seem a bit overhyped, as he is valued much higher than what he has shown. Of course, he just might win in Wisla and prove me wrong, but as mentioned, the offered odds are not interesting enough for us to bet on him to win.

Kilian Pier, a new name in Ski jumping, who has shown a lot of potential this summer. This Swiss ski jumper has achieved the 3rd place in the Grand Prix in Hinterzarten, 2nd in Hinzerbach and 6th Overall place in FIS Grand Prix 2018. From what we have seen from him, he just might be a contender for top results this season if he can keep his excellent form. This 23-year-old Swiss has already achieved a 17th place in World Cup, but there is no denying he has drastically improved during summer. His self- confidence grew and with it, his performances. He is surely one to watch. If he can continue with his great performances he showed during summer I would be surprised if he will not finish this season in the top 10. 

Peter Prevc, an exceptional talent from Slovenia and an unofficial record holder in Wisla, who has had a perfect season in 2015/16, winning everything. And by everything I mean Overall standings, Four Hills Tournament and Ski Flying standings. Sadly his country, Slovenia ended 2nd in Nations Cup, but nonetheless, he was a class above all other athletes, winning overall standings with 813 points above 2nd placed Severin Freud. Despite his exceptional performance in 2015/16, the next seasons were not nearly as good. In 2016/17 he finished 9th in Overall standings and only 15th in 2017/18. He is currently recovering from a surgery of his ankle which he sprained several times. The surgery was needed to return his mobility, which just might be a reason for his bad performance last year. I say “might” because he refused to blame his ankle for the results after asked if his ankle affected his performance he stated; “I can’t really answer that. I don’t think that it can serve as an excuse for my bad results last year”. When will we see him compete is still a mystery, as he does not want to rush it and risk another injury, but one thing is for sure, he won’t be seen competing in Wisla.

Severin Freund, an exceptional ski jumper, with 1 overall title in 2014/15, 2nd place in 2015/16 and 3rd overall place in 2013/14 as well as 22 individual wins and an Olympic gold medal is back to compete after his long absence from jumping hills. However, just like Peter Prevc, we won’t be able to see Severin Freund competing in the opening event in Wisla, as he is also recovering from the injury he suffered in 2017. During training in Oberstdorf in 2017, Freund suffered his second cruciate ligament rupture, and because the nature of the injury, he missed the entire Olympic season. But now it’s time for this German athlete to come back. Although he won’t compete in Wisla, he is expected to do so on 24th November, and we eagerly await for him to show us what is he capable of.

It is the first match of the season, so betting on favorites is not recommended. That is why we will not predict Kamil Stoch to win (odds: 3.00). He just might win in Wisla, and I wouldn’t be surprised, but the odds offered are not enough for us to take. Numerous times an underdog won the first event, and we won’t like risking it here, so steer clear of betting on favorites in the first match of the season. We will, however, focus on Top 3 finish and H2H bets for the opening event in Wisla.

Market Prediction Odds Stake Won / Lost
Podium Finish Richard Freitag 4.00 Bet365 1 Unit Lost
Podium Finish Daniel Andre Tande 4.00 Bet365 1 Unit Lost
Podium Finish – No Robert Johansson 1.90 Bet365 1 Unit Won
H2H (Robert Johansson v Richard Freitag) Richard Freitag 2.81 Pinnacle 2 Units Lost
H2H (Daniel Andre Tande vb Johan Andre Forfang) Daniel Andre Tande 1.83 Pinnacle 2 Units Lost
H2H (Evgeniy Klimov v Daniel Huber) Daniel Huber 1.83 Bet365 2 Units Lost

It would be fair to say the upcoming Ski Jumping season will be an exceptional one with a lot to offer. We will see the best athletes competing for the title, and with such a fierce competition we, the spectators surely won’t be left indifferent. The return of Severin Freund, surgery of Peter Prevc, which could bring him back to former glory from 2015/16 and of course the anticipation of how will Kilian Peter perform after his great summer results are only a few things to look forward to this year.

Prediction for the upcoming Team event will be added on 16.11. and will be available to premium members only. You can expect more detailed previews when the season progress.


Team Event Predictions

 

Market Prediction Odds Stake Won / Lost
Outright Norway 3.50 Pinnacle 1 Unit Lost
Outright Poland 4.00 Bet365 1 Unit Won
H2H (Germany vs The Field) The Field 1.80 Bet365 2 Units Won
H2H (Austria vs Japan) Austria 1.746 Pinnacle 2 Units Won