Category: Race Preview

Men's Slalom - Schladming (AUT)

Men’s Slalom – Schladming (AUT)

With yet another surprise in the most recent Super-G race for men, the athletes will travel to Schladming where they will face off against each other in the 27th overall race and 8th slalom race of the season. The last race of the season took place at the famous Kitzbühel, where we watched men competing in a downhill, slalom and super-G events from 25th January – 27th January. The most recent event was the Super-G race, which was the first Super-G race of 2019 and the first one since Bormio (December 29th).

In the Super-G race in Kitzbühel, we saw Josef Ferstl winning the 2nd race of his career. He celebrated his 2nd Super-G win on Saturday, which is a spectacular result for him. The reason being is that 40 years ago, his father Sepp Ferstl won the downhill race in Kitzbühel. Josef Ferstl finished the race 0.08s in front of Johan Clarey and 0.10s in front of Dominik Paris, who was considered a favourite to win here after winning in Bormio.

With Josef Ferstl finishing 1st, the German team managed to win at that venue twice in a row, after Thomas Dressen won the last season at the Streif. Johan Clarey who has not yet won a race in his career has added the 5th podium finish after finishing 2nd in the super-g. This is now the best result in the super-g discipline for him after finishing 4th in Val Gardena. Dominik Paris grabbed his 6th podium in his career in Kitzbühel, which also marked the 3rd podium in super-g this season for him. With a 3rd place finish, he is now 3rd in the Super-G standings, 3 points behind Matthias Mayer and 6 points behind Vincent Kriechmayr.

After the 3 races in Kitzbühel, men are now travelling to Schladming for the last race on Austrian snow this season. When we talk about slalom races, it’s only normal to think to yourself Marcel Hirscher will once again sweep his competition under the rug and cross the finish line with a huge margin in front of other athletes, however, he has not won the last 2 slalom races. In Wengen, he finished 3rd, while he was 2nd in Kitzbühel, 0.29s behind Clement Noel. While 3rd and 2nd place are not bad results, it’s far from what we are used to seeing from Hirscher, who prior to Wengen won all but one slalom race. Looking back at the last season, Hirscher just like this season finished 2nd in Kitzbühel and then went on to win in Schladming and Kranjska Gora. While this is just something that has happened, Marcel Hirscher has finished on the podium in Schladming in the last 3 seasons, so in that regard, it’s safe to say he is expected to finish high today as well. Now let’s check the favourites as well as our predictions for the upcoming slalom event.

Marcel Hirscher has won 11 of his last 15 slalom races in the World Cup but failed to win both of the last 2, instead, it was Clement Noel who was celebrating in Wengen and Kitzbühel. If Hirscher fails to win today, it will mark the first time he failed to win 3 consecutive slalom events since November 2017, when he did not win in 4 consecutive races. With no slalom wins since January 13th, Marcel Hirscher is still ranked 3rd amongst men looking at slalom wins. He is trailing Alberto Tomba (35) and Ingemar Stenmark (40) with his 31 World Cup slalom wins. As for his results at Schladming, he has won here twice; in 2012 and 2018. With 2 wins he is 3rd among men with the most wins at Schladming, trailing Henrik Kristoffersen (3) and Benjamin Raich (4).

Despite only 2 wins in his career, Clement Noel is deservingly among the favourites to win today. It would be hard to argue he is not capable of winning in Schladming after winning both Wengen and Kitzbühel slalom races. In Wengen, he finished 0.08s in front of Manuel Feller and 0.10s in front of Marcel Hirscher, while he finished 0.29s in front of Marcel Hirscher and 0.36s in front of his teammate Alexis Pinturault in Kitzbühel. If Clement Noel wins today, he would become the first Frenchman to win 3 consecutive World Cup slalom racers since Jean-Noel Augert (1971) Alain Penz (1970) and Patrick Russel (1970). With the domination of Hirscher in slalom events, the last man to win 3 consecutive slalom events other than Hirscher was Henrik Kristoffersen in 2016. With a podium finish in all of the last 3 slalom events; Adelboden 2nd, Wengen 1st and Kitzbühel 1st he is among only a few Frenchman who managed to finish on the podium in 3 or more consecutive events.

Henrik Kristoffersen alongside Benjamin Raich are the only 2 men who won 3 or more times at Schladming. Henrik Kristoffersen won here in 2014,2016 and 2017. While he was beaten by Marcel Hirscher last season, Kristoffersen still finished at a respectable 2nd place. As of now, the 3 wins at Schladming are Kristoffersen personal record among all ski resorts. This season, Kristoffersen stood on the podium in slalom races 3 times, however, failed to finish among the top 3 in the last 2 slalom races. In both Wengen and Kitzbühel, he finished 4th. As of now, he has 15 slalom wins to his name and is still seeking his 1st slalom win this season, which would see him equalling Marc Giradelli (16) at fourth place all-time among men.

Market Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
Outright Marcel Hirscher 2.179 2.25 1 Unit Won
FIS Ski Jumping World Cup - Zakopane (POL)

FIS Ski Jumping World Cup – Zakopane (POL)

The German team has once again won the event in Zakopane after losing to Poland in 2017/18 season, which prevented them from winning here for the 2nd time in a row. The team of Karl Geiger, Markus Eisenbichler, David Seigel and Stephan Leyhe has won the team event in Zakopane in a nail-biting contest, against their neighbours Austria and their team; Daniel Huber, Jan Hoerl, Michael Hayboeck and Stefan Kraft. It was an entertaining event, where we even saw a new hill record being set not once but 2 times, sadly the crash of David Seigel overshadowed the whole competition.

Not only did we see 2 hill records being set; first by Markus Eisenbichler (143m) and after Dawid Kubacki (143.5m) but also the disqualification of Johann Andre Forfang and as mentioned the crash of David Siegel in the final round. There are no official reports on his condition as of now, however from what we have seen his knee is not looking good and will most likely be out for a prolonged time. On the bright side, I must mention the superb performance from Austrian youngster Jan Hoerl. He got the spot in the team as a replacement for Manuel Fettner and arguably justified the decision of the coach. His 2 jumps of 134.5 and 133.5 played a big part in Austrian team success yesterday and we can expect him to appear in the next team event as well. After the event, he stated: “It was a very cool competition today, it was my first time competing in a team event. And to be on the podium in this atmosphere here is really cool. I showed two good jumps today and I think the others are also satisfied with their jumps”.

As mentioned, the German team won the event with 1157.5 points, while Austria ended 2nd with 1157.4 points. The third place went to the Polish team (1117.2 points), after the deciding jump from Dawid Kubacki who set a new record of the hill with a 143.5m jump. At the 4th place, we saw Slovenia who accumulated 1103.8 points, followed by Japan. The current individual event leader Ryoyu Kobayashi could not perform as we expected, as he only managed to jump 132m and 135m. He was however still the best jumper in his team, but sadly it was not enough to get Japan in the top 3. The Czech Republic team ended 5th with 1028 points. Roman Koudelka was their best jumper with his 138m and 135.5m jumps. It has become clear now, that he is getting better with each passing event. If he manages to continue with his good performances, I would not be surprised if he ends up as a real contender for the podium spots in the upcoming individual events. Swiss team ended 7th, while Norway once again finished last due to yet another disqualification of their jumper Johann Andre Forfang. Quite ironically, as I did mention they are expected to be extra careful not to repeat their mistake from the first team event. I guess I was wrong. With the team event behind us, the athletes are getting ready for the 14th individual event of the season, which will take place on 20th January at the same hill as a team event in Zakopane. So far this season, Ryoyu Kobayashi accumulated 1092 points which places him at the first spot in the overall standings far in front of 2nd placed Kamil Stoch who has “only” 624 points and 3rd placed Piotr Zyla with 591 points. At this point I must mention 3 out of the top 4 ski jumpers in the Overall standings are Polish; Kamil Stoch, Piotr Zyla and Dawid Kubacki, which shows how strong Polish team is, however they still failed to win in Zakopane yesterday.

The last individual event took place in Cal di Fiemme, where we saw Dawid Kubacki winning his first event of the season. He was followed by Stefan Kraft and Kamil Stoch at the 3rd place. Ryoyu Kobayashi finished 7th which meant his 6 consecutive wins streak came to an end despite the fact he won in Val di Fiemme only a day prior. Last season we saw 2 Slovenian ski jumpers on the podium in Zakopane. Anze Semencic won the first individual event of his career, however, failed to win an event ever since. His best result since his win in Zakopane was 10th place in Val di Fiemme this season. Andreas Wellinger finished 2nd, while Peter Prevc ended 3rd. Now let’s check the favourites to win the individual event in Zakopane and our predictions.

After his 6 consecutive wins, his streak came to an end in Val di Fiemme where he finished 7th. In the upcoming event in Zakopane, Ryoyu Kobayashi will be looking to win his 10th event of the season which would only cement his position at the top spot in the overall standings. In total, Kobayashi won 9 out of 13 individual events this season, which is just as many as Kamil Stoch won in the whole last season. The last ski jumper who won more than 9 individual events in one season was Peter Prevc who accumulated 15 victories in 2015/16. Among Japanese ski jumpers, there are only 2 other who claimed more than 9 individual wins in their career; Noriaki Kasai (17), Kazuyoshi Funaki (15). The only 2 events this season where Kobayashi did not finish on the podium were Engelberg and Val di Fiemme, which means he accumulated 11 podium finishes up until now. In comparison, Kamil Stoch had 13 podium finishes last season.

Kamil Stoch is currently 2nd in the overall standings, over 400 points behind Ryoyu Kobayashi. Despite that, he is still searching for his 1st win of the season to add to his 31 individual World Cup victories, which is 6th most in all-time standings. In the last 2 events in Val di Fiemme, Stoch finished 3rd on both days. If he manages to finish on the podium once more, he would achieve 3 consecutive podiums for the first time since December 2017-January 2018 where he has 6 consecutive podium finishes. In Zakopane, Stoch ended on the podium 9 times, which is the most among all ski jumpers. On the other side, he has won 4 times in Zakopane which is 2nd most behind Gregor Schlierenzauer.

After setting a new hill record, we simply can’t forget to mention Dawid Kubacki. He finished on the podium in each of the last 3 individual events. He was 2nd in Bischofshofen, 2nd in Val di Fiemme and won the second event in Val di Fiemme. The win in Val di Fiemme was also his first individual win in his career. If he manages to repeat his success today, he would become the first man other than Kobayashi to win 2 successive individual World Cup events since Stoch won both events in Planica last season. He could also become the 5th Polish ski jumper to win multiple Individual World Cup events after Adam Malysz (39), Stoch (31), Pjotr FIjas (3) and Maciej Kot (2).

Market Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
Top 6 finish Ryoyu Kobayashi / 1.50 1 Unit Lost
FIS Ski Jumping World Cup - Val di Fiemme (ITA) Event 2 Update

FIS Ski Jumping World Cup – Val di Fiemme (ITA) Event 2 Update

Ryoyu Kobayashi remains the leading alpine ski jumping athlete as men prepare for the second event in Val di Fiemme, which will take place on 13th of January at 17:00 (5:00 pm). Keep in mind, we will not be adding our predictions to this preview, as the qualification round takes place at 15:45, which means, we will wait till the end of the qualifications to see if bookmakers offer odds on the main event.

The upcoming event will take place in Val di Fiemme, on Trampolino Giuseppe Dal Ben hill, which will be the same venue as the most recent event on 12th of January. The upcoming event will mark the 13th event of the season and the 2nd time athletes compete in Italy. Looking at the last event, it was Ryoyu Kobayashi who won his 6th consecutive ski jumping event this season and 9th overall. After his impressive Grand Slam in the Four Hills tournament, Kobayashi continues with his spectacular performance and has become one of the few athletes in history to win 6 consecutive events. If he can repeat his success on Trampolino Giuseppe Dal Ben, he would become the first athlete in history to win 7 times in a row, and to be fair I would not be surprised if he manages to do so.

After his win in Predazzo, Kobayashi remained humble and told he was honoured his name is mentioned alongside Ahonen, Hautamaeki, Morgenstern and Schlierenzauer, who all achieved 6 consecutive wins in their career. He stated he does not think much about the fact he can write history and is rather focused on his jumps. Ryoyu should also be careful not to get caught by Stoch who jokingly said he will lock Ryoyu in one of the containers just so he could have a chance to win. Understandably Stoch, as well as other athletes, are desperate to catch up to Ryoyu who has been out of reach with his performances. In the first event at Val di Fiemme, Dawid Kubacki finished 2nd, while Kamil Stoch finished 3rd. This was the 3rd podium for Kubacki and 3rd for Kamil Stoch, who was last seen standing on the podium in Engelberg on 16th of December, where he finished 3rd.

Market Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
Top 6 finish Marcus Eisenbichler / 1.50 1 Unit Won
 
FIS Ski Jumping Four Hills Tournament - Innsbruck (AUT)

FIS Ski Jumping Four Hills Tournament – Innsbruck (AUT)

On the 4th of January, men ski jumpers will compete in the 3rd event in the Four Hills Tournament and 10th event of the season in Innsbruck, at Bergiselschanze or “Bergisel” ski jumping hill.

Here we are, at the 3rd event of the 67th Four Hills Tournament, with current leader Ryoyu Kobayashi eyeing his 3rd consecutive win, today in Innsbruck. If he wins both of the next 2 events, he would join the elite few who won all at the Four Hills Tournament events, but more on him later.

The last event for ski jumpers took place in neighbouring Germany, more specifically at Garmisch-Partenkirchen (Große Olympiaschanze ski jumping hill). There we saw Kobayashi yet again winning, which is now his 6th win of the season and an 8th podium finish. He won with 266.6 points, 1.9 points in front of Markus Eisenbichler who also finished 2nd in Oberstdorf. At third place, we saw Dawid Kubacki, who achieved his 1st podium finish this season and 4th in his career. As of now, Kobayashi is leading the Four Hills tournament standings with 548.9 points, closely followed by Markus Eisenbichler (546.6) and Dawid Kubacki at the third place (526 points). With only a few points separating the top 2 competitors, nothing is yet decided on who will win the tournament, however, one thing is for sure, the upcoming event is of huge importance for both Kobayashi as well as Eisenbichler.

As mentioned, the skiers will compete in Innsbruck, more specifically at Bergiselschanze ski jumping hill. The hill is located in Bergisel, Austria and is one of the most important venues in the World Cup event, as it regularly hosts the Four Hills Tournament. In addition, the hill hosted the Olympic games on 2 occasions (1964 and 1976) as well as World Championships in 1933 and 1985. The hill size is at 130, with its K point at 120m. The current record holder is Michael Hayböck who jumped 138m in 2015.

Going into the next event, the margin between Kobayashi and Eisenbichler is only 2.3 points, which means a simple mistake of any of the 2 athletes could cost them a win in the final standings. Kobayashi is currently the favourite to win the Four Hills Tournament (odds of 1.20) which is not surprising as he has been a dominant force this season, winning 6 out of 9 events and finishing on the podium in 8/9. In the Overall standings in the World Cup, he is well above 2nd placed Piotr Zyla (247 points margin) and even more so in front of last year champion Kamil Stoch (319 points).

In fact, it’s not only Kobayashi who is performing well, but we can say the same for the whole Japanese team. The older Kobayashi brother finished 5th in the last event, 17.2 points behind Ryoyu, while Ito Daiki finished 12th and Yukiya Sato 17th. Germany also performed well with Eisenbichler at 2nd place, Stephan Leyhe 7th, David Seigel 17th and Karl Geiger 19th. Sadly for Richard Freitag, he finished 7th after the first jump but underperformed in the 2nd jump which saw him finishing 24th.

With 2 wins in the Four Hills Tournament, Ryoyu Kobayashi is looking to make it triple today. He can also become the 11th jumper as well as the 3rd Japanese jumper to win the first 3 events in a single Four Hills Tournament. As mentioned in the previous review, 9 out of 10 ski jumpers who won the first 3 Four Hills Tournament went on to win the overall standings. In addition in the last 19 years only once did it happen that the leader after the Innsbruck event failed to win the Golden Eagle. If he manages to win here, it would mark the 6th time Japan won in Innsbruck, while they won 5 times in Garmisch-Partenkirchen and 3 times in Oberstdorf. The last Japanese athlete won in Innsbruck was Kasai in 1999.

As it seems Markus Eisenbichler is the only athlete who can compete against Ryoyu Kobayashi in the Four Hills Tournament and the only one who is capable of snatching the win from the Japanese ski jumper. He finished 2nd in Oberstdorf and Garmisch-Partenkirchen, and with that, he could become the 3rd ski jumper to finish 2nd in all of the first 3 events of Four Hills Tournament since Janne Ahonen in 1998/1999 and Kiri Raska in 1970/71. Despite his good results in the last 2 events, Markus Eisenbichler has not yet won an individual event in his career. As of now, Germany team has won 11 times in Innsbruck, while they won 21 times in Oberstdorf and 13 times in Garmisch-Partenkirchen.

Market Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
H2H (Forfang v Huber) Daniel Huber 2.11 2.10  1 Unit Won
H2H (Eisenbichler v Stjernen) Markus Eisenbichler 1.714 1.66 1 Unit Lost
H2H (Johansson v Zajc) Robert Johansson 1.571 / 1 Unit Lost
FIS Ski Jumping Four Hills Tournament - Garmisch-Partenkirchen (GER)

FIS Ski Jumping Four Hills Tournament – Garmisch-Partenkirchen (GER)

While “normal” people were celebrating the New Year, partying with their friends and enjoying the fireworks, the ski jumpers had a different New Year’s evening, as they had to get ready for their next event, which will take place in Garmisch-Partenkirchen as the 2nd event of the Four Hills Tournament and 9th ski jumping event this season.

First, let’s look at how the athletes performed in the first event of the Four Hills Tournament in Oberstdorf, where they competed at Schattenberg ski jumping hill. The current leader and a huge surprise this season, Ryoyu Kobayashi has won yet again another event, which was his 5th this season and the 2nd win in a row. He has finished the competition with 282.3 points, only 0.4 points above Markus Eisenbichler, who has achieved the 1st podium finish of his career (not counting the team win). At third place, we saw Stefan Kraft, the best Austrian ski jumper this season, who finished with 280.5 points and is now ranked 9th in the overall standings. With the event in Oberstdorf being the first in the Four Hills Tournament, the current standings of the tournament are the same as the results in the event.

For the next event in the World Cup, the athletes will travel to Garmisch-Partenkirchen, more specifically to Große Olympiaschanze ski jumping hill, which held the 1963 Winter Olympics. it is also a regular venue for the Four Hills Tournament on 1st of January. The hill size is 140 with its K-point being 125. Current record holder at this hill is Simon Amman, who jumped 143.5m back in 2010.

Last season, it was Kamil Stoch who won at this hill, followed by Richard Freitag and Anders Fannemel at the 3rd place. As an interesting fact, I can add that since 2008/09 season nine of the 10 leaders in the Four Hills tournament after the second event went on to win the overall title. Is there any correlation between the overall winner and athletes performance in the Four Hills tournament? It would be hard to prove there is, but on the other side, it would be even harder to prove there is no correlation, especially with the statistics that saw 90% of leaders go on to win the overall title. Now let’s check the favourites to win the first event of 2019 and our predictions:

After winning in Oberstdorf, Ryoyu Kobayashi is looking to make it 2 in a row in Garmisch-Partenkirchen. His win in Oberstdorf was somewhat historic, as Japan has not won a Four Hills Tournament event since Noriaki Kasai won in Garmisch.Partenkirchen on 1st of January 2001. If Kobayashi manages to win today, he will become the 4th athlete to win the opening 2 events of the Four Hills Tournament since 2005/2006. Only Gregor Schlierenzauer, Anders Jacobsen and Kamil Stoch managed to achieve that in the last 13 seasons. Kobayashi is also on the verge of achieving the Japanese record of 6 individual World Cup wins in a single season, which is currently held by Noriaki Kasai in 1998/99.

Kamil Stoch, last seasons champion is still waiting for his first individual win in the World Cup this season. Up until now, his best result was 2nd place in Ruka on 24th of November, but he still did not manage to finish in the 1st place. As for Four Hills Tournament, Stoch has won 5 events in his career, which means he could equal Helmuth Recknagel and Sven Hannawald in sixth place all-time in the Four Hills tournament if he wins one more time.

Piotr Zyla has finished on the podium in the last 4 of the last 5 individual World Cup events,. Out of those 4 podium finishes, he achieved 3 2nd places and 1 3rd place in Engelberg. As for the Four Hills Tournaments, he has only finished on the podium once, when he finished 3rd in Bischofshofen in 2017. With his 9 individual wins in his career, he might not be a favourite to win here, but we still believe he is more than capable of putting up good results.

Market Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
H2H (Zyla v Johansson) Piotr Zyla 1.854 1.72  1 Unit Won
FIS Ski Jumping World Cup - Engelberg 2018

FIS Ski Jumping Four Hills Tournament – Oberstdorf (GER)

It’s been 2 weeks since the last Ski jumping event, which took place in Engelberg on 15th and 16th December. Now men ski jumpers are travelling to Germany where they will compete in Oberstdorf and later in Innsbruck and Bischofshofen in this year’s Four Hills Tournament.

The Four Hills Tournament is the German-Austrian Ski Jumping Week, which takes place from 29/30th December – 6th of January in Germany and Austria. It’s a Ski jumping event that is composed of 4 World Cup events, which saw it’s beginnings in 1953 and it takes place at Oberstdorf, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Innsbruck and Bischofshofen. Winning all the 4 events is also called the “Grand Slam”. The first time we saw an athlete achieving the “Grand Slam” was in 2001-02, when Sven Hannawald won all four events. Last season (2017-18), it was Kamil Stoch who became the 2nd man to do the same. Despite the fact that the tournament counts separately from World Cup, the points still count towards the overall title in the World Cup.

One of the tournaments peculiarities is its qualifying system. Unlike any other ski jumping event, where the top 30 competitors from the 1st round qualify for the 2nd round, there is a knock-out system for Four Hills Tournament. The 50 competitors are split into 25 pairs which then compete against each other. The 25 winners + 5 of the best performing “losers” then qualify for the 2nd round (30 competitors). I will not go into much detail about how the Tournament works but let’s rather look at how the season went thus far and who are favourites, as well as what are our predictions.

As of now, Ryoyu Kobayashi is leading the overall standings with 556 points. At the 2nd place with 445 points it’s Piotr Zyla who is 80 points ahead of his teammate, 3rd placed Kamil Stoch. In the Nations Cup, Poland (1457) is leading ahead of Germany (1320), with Japan at 3rd place (946). Ryoyu Kobayashi has really been a huge surprise this season, with 4 wins in 7 events. Stock, on the other hand, has not been himself in the opening 7 races, with 0 wins and 3 podium finishes. In the most recent event in Engelberg, we saw Ryoyu Kobayashi once again winning, with Piotr Zyla at 2nd place and Kamil Stoch at 3rd. This was Piotr Zyla 5th podium finish this season and his 4th podium in a row (one 3rd place and three 2nd places).

The next event will take place at Oberstdorf, more specifically at Schattenbergschanze hill (H137). Last season, it was Kamil Stoch who won here, with Richard Freitag 2nd and Dawid Kubacki at the 3rd place. In Fact, as mentioned before, Stoch won all Four Hill Tournament events, which happened 2nd in the history of the tournament. Looking at 2016/17 season, Stoch finished 2nd in the 2 events in Germany and 1st in Paul-Ausserleitner-Schanze, which resulted in him winning the tournament. This means he won the tournament twice in a row and will be hoping to do so again this season.

Kamil Stoch has won 2 Tournaments and 5 events in a row, which means that if he wins in Oberstdorf he would become the first man to win 6 Four Hills events in a row. As of now, he is tied with Helmut Recknagel and Sven Hannawald with 5 Four Hills Tournament events wins in a row. This year, Stoch managed to win 8 individual World Cup events (all in the last season), which means there is only 1 other man ski jumpers who won events for Poland in a single year; Adam Malysz with 9 wins in 2007 and 17 in 2001. If Stoch managed to win 2 more events, he would climb to 5th place in all-time most individual World Cup wins. As of now, he has 31 wins. Despite somewhat poor performances this season, the Four Hills TOurnament is where Stock shines and we believe this will be his chance for redemption. The season is still young and the race for the overall title is still open, however, the Four Hills Tournament comes round only once per year and I believe Stoch won’t let the opportunity to win here once again slip away.

Currently leading the World Cup standings, Ryoyu Kobayashi can become the 2nd Japanese man to win the Four Hills Tournament after Kazuyoshi Funaki in 1997/1998, when he won the first 3 events of the tournament. Ever since only Noriaki Kasai managed to win Four Hills event for Japan (Innsbruck in 1998/1999 and Garmisch-Partenkirschen 2000/01). Up until now, Kobayashi best result in the Four Hills Tournament is a 12th place in Oberstdorf last year. If he manages to finish on the podium, he would become the first Japanese man to do so since Noriaki Kasai in 2014/15.

Peter Prevc won the Four Hills events in Garmisch-Partenkirschen, Innsbruck and Bischofshofen in 2015/16 when he won the Golden Eagle. That year he was the dominant force in ski jumping, as he achieved the highest score ever in the Overall standings (2303). If he manages to win today, he would become the 11th ski jumper to win all the Four Hills Tournament events as well as the overall title in the named tournament. Despite his dominant performance in 2015/16, he only finished on the podium once in his last 31 appearances in individual World Cup events. The last podium finish was 3rd place in Zakopane on 28th of January 2018.

Stefan Kraft won the opening event of the Four Hills Tournament (Oberstdorf) in 2016/17 and 2014/15. With that, he could join Thoma and Schitt on a record 3 wins in this venue. Kraft, despite on the verge of reaching a record 3 wins in Oberstdorf, has not won any other Four Hills tournament events. His best result on other hills is 2nd place in Innsbruck (2014/15). As for his performance this season, his best result up until now is 5th place in Nizhny Tagil on 1st of December.

Market Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
Outright Ryoyu Kobayashi 1.99 2.00  1 Unit Won
Podium Finish – No Kamil Stoch / 2.00  1 Unit Won
Top 6 finish Stefan Kraft / 2.00  1 Unit Won
H2H(Kamil Stoch vs Stefan Kraft) Stefan Kraft 2.85 3.00 1 Unit Won
FIS Ski Jumping World Cup - Engelberg 2018

FIS Ski Jumping World Cup – Engelberg 2018

After a long break from ski jumping events (2nd December-15th December), the athletes are travelling to Switzerland to compete in the 6th event of the season. The most recent event which should take place in Germany, more specifically at Titisee-Neustadt was cancelled due to warm weather and lack of snow, the event was rescheduled to 1st February in Oberstdorf when we can safely say there will be plenty of snow. With the event in Germany being cancelled, the most recent event took place in Russia, where we saw 2 competitions on the same jumping hill (Tramplin Stork). In the first event on 1st December, it was Johann Andre Forfang who won, only 0.2 points in front of Zyla Piotr and 2.4 points in front of the current leader Ryoyu Kobayashi. The second event saw the same 3 athletes on the podium, however that time it was Kobayashi who won, with Forfang 2nd and Zyla 3rd. Kamil Stoch, who has not been himself this season finished the first event at 7th place (244.2 points) and 4th in the second event (257.8 points), which was 1.1 points short of reaching the podium.

Looking at the upcoming event in Engelberg, the athletes will compete on Gross-Titlis-Schanze( HS 137, K-125). The jumping hill is named after the local mountain Titlis, which has the highest summit of the range north of the Susten Pass (3238m/10623 ft). The record at the jumping hill is currently at 144m, held by Domen Prevc. Looking at last years event at this venue, Anders Fannemel won the first event, followed by Richard Freitag and Kamil Stoch at the 3rd place. In the second event (day 2), Richard Freitag won, followed by Kamil Stoch at 2nd and Stefan Kraft at 3rd place.

Ryoyu Kobayashi has achieved a podium finish in all five individual large hill events this season. He has also won 3 events up until now; both events in Ruka and the second event in Nizhny Tagil. If he manages to finish on the podium again, he will become the first ski jumper to finish on the podium in the first 6 individual World Cup events, since Morgenstern (who won 8). With exceptional performances thus far, he can become the first non-European ski jumper to win the overall title, however, the season is still young and anything can happen, but there is no dying he is closer to achieving it with each event. Up until now the best result in the overall standings from a non-European skier was set by Noriaki Kasai, who finished 3rd in 1998/1999 season.

With 31 individual World Cup wins, Kamil Stoch has 6th most wins among men, only 2 short of reaching Weßflog (33) at 5th place. Looking at the 2018 year as a whole (including last season), Stoch has 8 individual wins which is the most among men. He is however still behind Peter Prevc who has won 12 individual events in 2016. Looking at how Stoch performed in Switzerland, he has only won once in Engelberg on 22nd December 2013. Last year he finished 3rd at this venue on the first day and 2nd in the 2nd day. Comparing this season to Stoch last season, he had only 2 podium finishes until 16th of December when the athletes competed at Engleberg, he, however, went on to win all of the Four Hills Tournament events and eventually win the overall title. Much like last year, Stoch has only 2 podium finishes this season; 2nd place in Ruka and 3rd place in the 2nd event in Ruka. If he does not reach the podium today, it will be the first time that happened to him since January-February.

With only 1 individual win in his career, Piotr Zyla has finished on the podium in 3 events this season; 3rd place in Ruka, 2nd place in Nizhny Tagil 1st event and 3rd place in Nizhny Tagil 2nd event. With 3 podium finishes, he has a total of 6 podium finishes in his career. This is a huge improvement, as he has achieved podium only in 2013 and 2017. Last year at this venue, he finished 10th in the first event and 7th in the second event.

Market Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
Outright Kamil Stoch 9.00 8.00  1 Unit Lost
Podium Finish Kamil Stoch / 2.50  1 Unit Lost
Top 6 finish Kamil Stoch / 1.44  2 Units Lost
H2H (Stefan Kraft v Johansson) Stefan Kraft 1.735 1.72 1 Unit Lost
H2H (Kamil Stoch v Zyla) Kamil Stoch 1.540 1.53 1 Unit Lost
FIS Ski Jumping World Cup - Nizhny Tagil 2018 - Event 2 Update

FIS Ski Jumping World Cup – Nizhny Tagil 2018 – Event 2 Update

The 5th event of the season and 2nd event at Tramplin Stork, Nizhny Tagil will take place today, on 2nd of December.

In the previous event, that took place on 1st of December, It was Johann Andre Forfang who celebrated his 1st win of the season with 264.4 points. Close behind, we saw Piotr Zyla (264.2 points) and a third place, the current leader Ryoyu Kobayashi with 262 points. These three ski jumpers were far ahead of their competition, as 4th placed Stephan Leyhe finished with 252.9 points. Our favourite, Kamil Stoch is still struggling this season, and from we have seen from him thus far, he is not what he was in the last season. With a 7th place and only 244.2 points, he is currently 2nd in the overall standings, 94 points behind Ryoyu Kobayashi.

Because this is the 2nd event at the same venue, we won’t about the hill again, and the same goes for our description of athletes who compete, as we have already covered them in our previous preview. So let’s jump right into our predictions.

Kamil Stoch, Kamil Stoch and again Kamil Stoch. We have expected him to win here yesterday, but he once again failed to do so. Now is that a reason for concern? I don’t feel like it is. Kamil Stoch is a world-class ski jumper and I don’t need to explain why that is. Currently, he is having a bad run, which in his criteria means he did not win yet and is “only” second on the overall leaderboards. Now, why would we back up him again? It’s simple, he will start winning sooner or later and with his performances recently the odds on him to win only go up. At the moment, Pinnacle is offering odds of 8.00 for Kamil Stoch to win. We will gladly take those odds and hope the champion finally wakes up from him win-less slumber.

Market – Event 2 Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
Outright Kamil Stoch 8.00 7.00  1 Unit Lost
Podium Finish Kamil Stoch / 2.75 2 Units Lost
Top 6 finish Kamil Stoch / 1.57 2 Units Won
FIS Ski Jumping World Cup - Nizhny Tagil - Event 1

FIS Ski Jumping World Cup – Nizhny Tagil – Event 1

The Season So Far

As of 30th of December, we are only 3 events into 2018/19 Ski Jumping season, however, the results we have seen from the ski jumpers so far are far from what we have expected. Now let’s take a look at what happened in the events so far.


The opening event of the season took place at Wisla, Poland, which was the venue of the first event of the season for the 2nd time in a row. In the opening event, we saw Evgeniy Klimov convincingly achieving his 1st win in his career. With 263.4 points, he ended 6,7 points ahead of Leyhe Stephan, who just like Klimov achieved a great career result. In the third place, it was Ryoyu Kobayashi with 255.6 points who recorded his 1st podium finish with the 3rd place in Wisla. Kamil Stoch, the favorite and last year’s champion ended in a disappointing 4th place with 255.3 points.

As for the team event, it was Poland who celebrated a close win. At the 2nd place, we saw Germany, followed by Austria at 3rd. After the first 6 jumps, Poland was leading in front of Germany, but after a terrible jump from Dawid Kubacki (114.5m) they were passed by their western neighbors. So it all came down to the last 2 jumps; Richard Freitag and Kamil Stoch. Stoch landed at 129m, however, Freitag could not perform as well. He jumped 123.5m which saw Poland once again getting the lead and ultimately the win. Our predictions in the first event did not perform as well as we had hoped. With 10 predictions, we saw a 40% win rate, -2.01 units of profit and -13.4% ROI.

The second event of the season took place in Ruka, Finland. However we won’t talk about it here, but rather mention it down below, when we will take a look at the upcoming event. Still we can mention our betting performance:
With 6 predictions, we saw a 50% win rate, 4.22 units of profit and 46.9% ROI. In total, with 16 predictions, we were standing at 43.8% win rate, 2.21 units of profit and 9.2% ROI.

The second day In Ruka was the 3rd chance for Stoch to win the first event of the season, but once again he failed to do so. Instead, it was Ryoyu Kobayashi, who celebrated his 2nd win of the season and his career. He finished 22 points in front of Wellinger Andreas and 25 points in front of Stoch. All of our predictions covered Stoch; To win, Top 3 finish and Top 6 finish. With his 3rd place finish, we still got out with a profit. With 3 predictions, we saw a 66.7% win rate, 1.28 units of profit and 21.3% ROI.

In total, with 19 predictions, we are at 47.4% win rate, 3.49 units of profit and 11.6% ROI.


Nizhny Tagil – Event 1 – Preview & Predictions

With 3 ski jumping events behind us and Ryoyu Kobayashi currently leading the overall standings, we are traveling to Nizhny Tagil, Russia, where the athletes will compete on Tramplin Stork jumping hill. In the last event of the season, the athletes competed in Day 2 in Ruka, Finland. However we won’t look only at how they performed in the 2nd day, but the 1st day as well.

The second event of the season took place in Ruka, Finland. At that venue, we saw 2 events, with the first one taking place on 24th of November and the second one only a day later. In the first day, Klimov was considered a favorite, as bookmakers thought he will repeat his success from Wisla, however, that was not the case. Klimov ended 31st with subpar performance, which was far worse from what we have seen in Wisla. Kamil Stoch was also considered a favorite to win because he needed to fix his impression from the first event. And he did.. somewhat. Stoch finished 2nd, 2.1 points behind Ryoyu Kobayashi, who won the 1st event of his career. This also resulted in Kobayashi climbing to the top of overall standings. The second day In Ruka was the 3rd chance for Stoch to win the first event of the season, but once again he failed to do so. Instead, it was Ryoyu Kobayashi, who celebrated once again. He finished 22 points in front of Wellinger Andreas and 25 points in front of Stoch.

The upcoming event at Tramplin Stork will take place on 1st of December and it will be the first time the athletes will visit Russia this season. Nizhny Tagil is a regular World Cup host ever since 2014. In total, we have seen 6 events at this venue, so in December it will mark the 7th time Nizhny Tagil will host the World Cup event. Up until now, Severin Freund has the most wins at this venue (2). Last year, it was Andreas Wellinger who celebrated a win, with Richard Freitag at 2nd and Stefan Kraft at the 3rd place.

Athlete Pinnacle Odds Bet365 Odds Pinnacle Odds (vs the Field)
Ryoyu Kobayashi 2.27 2.25 1.588
Kamil Stoch 4.30 4.50 1.194
Andreas Wellinger 6.46 7.00 1.093
Evgeny Klimov / 16.00 /

Of course, we must start with the current leader in the World Cup standings, Ryoyu Kobayashi. This Japanese ski jumper has claimed his first 2 WC wins last week, by winning both large hill events in Ruka. He also finished 3rd in the opening event in Wisla. As of now, he is 70 points in front of Kamil Stoch in overall standings and 115 in front of Piotr Zyla. The upcoming event can he historic for Kobayashi. With a podium finish, he will become the first ski jumper in history to finish on the podium in all of the 4 opening events since Gregor Schlierenzauer in 2008/2009. Schlierenzauer also went on to win the overall title that year, so if we are a bit superstitious here, this could be a big win for Kobayashi. As for his nations records, with a win at Nizhny Tagil, Kobayashi will become the first Japanese ski jumper to claim 3 individual wins in a single season, and that is only 4 events in! With odds of 2.20 for Kobayashi to win, the odds are too low for us to consider betting on. He is without a doubt in a great form, but as said, the odds offered are simply too low for us.

Kamil Stoch is currently 70 points behind Ryoyu Kobayashi in the overall standings, he needs a win in Russia to close the gap. He finished on the podium in both events in Ruka, but that won’t be enough if he wishes to win a third World Cup title this season. The two events in Russia are a great chance for Stoch to get his 32nd and 33rd World Cup win, which would tie him with Weissflog at 5th place in all-time World Cup wins (33). Last year, he finished 15th and 7th in Nizhny Tagil. This year we will be hoping he performs better, as he has not yet claimed a first podium finish in the World Cup in Russia. His best performance at this venue was back in 2015 when Stoch finished 6th.

With his 2nd place finish in Ruka, Andreas Wellinger claimed his first podium finish in the World Cup this season. His last individual win came just a year ago, on 3rd of December 2017 at Nizhny Tagil. Interestingly enough, 4 out of 6 events in Nizhny Tagil have been won by German ski jumpers (2014/15/17/17), with the last years’ event seeing 2 german ski jumpers on the podium (Wellinger, Freitag). Bookmakers put Wellinger at 6.46 which is about fair, as he has not won an event in a year, but how much does his win at this venue add to the value? He is a good athlete, but nonetheless, we don’t think he is capable of winning here again.

Market Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
Outright Kamil Stoch 4.30 4.50  1 Unit Lost
Podium Finish Stefan Kraft / 8.00  1 Unit Lost
Podium Finish Richard Freitag / 10.00  1 Unit Lost
H2H (Johann Andre Forfang v Stefan Kraft) Stefan Kraft 2.02 2.10 1 Unit Won
FIS Ski Jumping World Cup - Ruka Day 2

FIS Ski Jumping World Cup – Ruka 2018 – Event 2 Update

The first day of Ski jumping event in Ruka is behind us and the athletes are already getting ready for day 2 on the same hill, in hopes to perform better or just as good as they did today.

In the 2nd event of the season, it was Kobayashi who celebrated the win with a 138.5m jump. He totaled 142 points, which was 2.1 more than second-placed Stoch, who jumped his way to the silver medal with a 140.5m jump and 139.9 points. Third place was awarded to Zyla who jumped 135m and got himself 135 points. With those results, Kobayashi is currently leading the overall rankings with 160 points, after his 3rd spot finish in Wisla and a win in Ruka. Stoch, the last years champion is currently 2nd with 130 points and Klimov at 3rd spot with 100 points.

 

The winner of the first event of the season in Wisla, Evgeniy Klimov disappointed with his 121.5m jump, which saw him finishing at 31st spot. He was one of the favorites to win here after his spectacular win in Wisla, but as we suspected he did not perform up to par. Still, we did not expect him to finish that low. He will have a chance to fix his 2nd impression tomorrow when jumpers will compete at the same hill.

Kamil Stoch, last years champion is still without a win this season. He finished 4th in Wisla on the opening event, 0.3 points behind Kobayashi (3rd place). In Ruka, Stoch performed better, finishing 2nd with a 140.5m jump which was 2.1 points less than the Japanese ski jumper who is currently leading the overall standings with 160 points. Kamil Stoch knows he needs to start winning soon and with a good jump on day 1, we expect him to perform on the same level today. As of now, he is 30 points behind leading Royoyu Kobayashi and with a win here, Stoch could reclaim his throne. Despite Stoch winning being highly possible, the opposition this season is fierce and he just might be beaten once more. We expect him to finish at least in the top 6 in the worst case scenario, however a win here would mean a lot to him so expect Stoch to give his all to climb back on the top of overall standings or at least close the gap between him and Kobayashi.

Market – Event 2 Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
Outright Kamil Stoch 4.50 4.50  2 Units Lost
Podium Finish Kamil Stoch / 2.20  2 Units Won
Top 6 Finish Kamil Stoch / 1.44  2 Units Won