While “normal” people were celebrating the New Year, partying with their friends and enjoying the fireworks, the ski jumpers had a different New Year’s evening, as they had to get ready for their next event, which will take place in Garmisch-Partenkirchen as the 2nd event of the Four Hills Tournament and 9th ski jumping event this season.
First, let’s look at how the athletes performed in the first event of the Four Hills Tournament in Oberstdorf, where they competed at Schattenberg ski jumping hill. The current leader and a huge surprise this season, Ryoyu Kobayashi has won yet again another event, which was his 5th this season and the 2nd win in a row. He has finished the competition with 282.3 points, only 0.4 points above Markus Eisenbichler, who has achieved the 1st podium finish of his career (not counting the team win). At third place, we saw Stefan Kraft, the best Austrian ski jumper this season, who finished with 280.5 points and is now ranked 9th in the overall standings. With the event in Oberstdorf being the first in the Four Hills Tournament, the current standings of the tournament are the same as the results in the event.
For the next event in the World Cup, the athletes will travel to Garmisch-Partenkirchen, more specifically to Große Olympiaschanze ski jumping hill, which held the 1963 Winter Olympics. it is also a regular venue for the Four Hills Tournament on 1st of January. The hill size is 140 with its K-point being 125. Current record holder at this hill is Simon Amman, who jumped 143.5m back in 2010.
Last season, it was Kamil Stoch who won at this hill, followed by Richard Freitag and Anders Fannemel at the 3rd place. As an interesting fact, I can add that since 2008/09 season nine of the 10 leaders in the Four Hills tournament after the second event went on to win the overall title. Is there any correlation between the overall winner and athletes performance in the Four Hills tournament? It would be hard to prove there is, but on the other side, it would be even harder to prove there is no correlation, especially with the statistics that saw 90% of leaders go on to win the overall title. Now let’s check the favourites to win the first event of 2019 and our predictions:
After winning in Oberstdorf, Ryoyu Kobayashi is looking to make it 2 in a row in Garmisch-Partenkirchen. His win in Oberstdorf was somewhat historic, as Japan has not won a Four Hills Tournament event since Noriaki Kasai won in Garmisch.Partenkirchen on 1st of January 2001. If Kobayashi manages to win today, he will become the 4th athlete to win the opening 2 events of the Four Hills Tournament since 2005/2006. Only Gregor Schlierenzauer, Anders Jacobsen and Kamil Stoch managed to achieve that in the last 13 seasons. Kobayashi is also on the verge of achieving the Japanese record of 6 individual World Cup wins in a single season, which is currently held by Noriaki Kasai in 1998/99.
Kamil Stoch, last seasons champion is still waiting for his first individual win in the World Cup this season. Up until now, his best result was 2nd place in Ruka on 24th of November, but he still did not manage to finish in the 1st place. As for Four Hills Tournament, Stoch has won 5 events in his career, which means he could equal Helmuth Recknagel and Sven Hannawald in sixth place all-time in the Four Hills tournament if he wins one more time.
Piotr Zyla has finished on the podium in the last 4 of the last 5 individual World Cup events,. Out of those 4 podium finishes, he achieved 3 2nd places and 1 3rd place in Engelberg. As for the Four Hills Tournaments, he has only finished on the podium once, when he finished 3rd in Bischofshofen in 2017. With his 9 individual wins in his career, he might not be a favourite to win here, but we still believe he is more than capable of putting up good results.
|Market||Prediction||Pinnacle Odds||Bet 365 Odds||Stake||Won / Lost|
|H2H (Zyla v Johansson)||Piotr Zyla||1.854||1.72||1 Unit||Won|