FIS Ski Jumping World Cup - Nizhny Tagil - Event 1

FIS Ski Jumping World Cup – Nizhny Tagil – Event 1

The Season So Far

As of 30th of December, we are only 3 events into 2018/19 Ski Jumping season, however, the results we have seen from the ski jumpers so far are far from what we have expected. Now let’s take a look at what happened in the events so far.

The opening event of the season took place at Wisla, Poland, which was the venue of the first event of the season for the 2nd time in a row. In the opening event, we saw Evgeniy Klimov convincingly achieving his 1st win in his career. With 263.4 points, he ended 6,7 points ahead of Leyhe Stephan, who just like Klimov achieved a great career result. In the third place, it was Ryoyu Kobayashi with 255.6 points who recorded his 1st podium finish with the 3rd place in Wisla. Kamil Stoch, the favorite and last year’s champion ended in a disappointing 4th place with 255.3 points.

As for the team event, it was Poland who celebrated a close win. At the 2nd place, we saw Germany, followed by Austria at 3rd. After the first 6 jumps, Poland was leading in front of Germany, but after a terrible jump from Dawid Kubacki (114.5m) they were passed by their western neighbors. So it all came down to the last 2 jumps; Richard Freitag and Kamil Stoch. Stoch landed at 129m, however, Freitag could not perform as well. He jumped 123.5m which saw Poland once again getting the lead and ultimately the win. Our predictions in the first event did not perform as well as we had hoped. With 10 predictions, we saw a 40% win rate, -2.01 units of profit and -13.4% ROI.

The second event of the season took place in Ruka, Finland. However we won’t talk about it here, but rather mention it down below, when we will take a look at the upcoming event. Still we can mention our betting performance:
With 6 predictions, we saw a 50% win rate, 4.22 units of profit and 46.9% ROI. In total, with 16 predictions, we were standing at 43.8% win rate, 2.21 units of profit and 9.2% ROI.

The second day In Ruka was the 3rd chance for Stoch to win the first event of the season, but once again he failed to do so. Instead, it was Ryoyu Kobayashi, who celebrated his 2nd win of the season and his career. He finished 22 points in front of Wellinger Andreas and 25 points in front of Stoch. All of our predictions covered Stoch; To win, Top 3 finish and Top 6 finish. With his 3rd place finish, we still got out with a profit. With 3 predictions, we saw a 66.7% win rate, 1.28 units of profit and 21.3% ROI.

In total, with 19 predictions, we are at 47.4% win rate, 3.49 units of profit and 11.6% ROI.

Nizhny Tagil – Event 1 – Preview & Predictions

With 3 ski jumping events behind us and Ryoyu Kobayashi currently leading the overall standings, we are traveling to Nizhny Tagil, Russia, where the athletes will compete on Tramplin Stork jumping hill. In the last event of the season, the athletes competed in Day 2 in Ruka, Finland. However we won’t look only at how they performed in the 2nd day, but the 1st day as well.

The second event of the season took place in Ruka, Finland. At that venue, we saw 2 events, with the first one taking place on 24th of November and the second one only a day later. In the first day, Klimov was considered a favorite, as bookmakers thought he will repeat his success from Wisla, however, that was not the case. Klimov ended 31st with subpar performance, which was far worse from what we have seen in Wisla. Kamil Stoch was also considered a favorite to win because he needed to fix his impression from the first event. And he did.. somewhat. Stoch finished 2nd, 2.1 points behind Ryoyu Kobayashi, who won the 1st event of his career. This also resulted in Kobayashi climbing to the top of overall standings. The second day In Ruka was the 3rd chance for Stoch to win the first event of the season, but once again he failed to do so. Instead, it was Ryoyu Kobayashi, who celebrated once again. He finished 22 points in front of Wellinger Andreas and 25 points in front of Stoch.

The upcoming event at Tramplin Stork will take place on 1st of December and it will be the first time the athletes will visit Russia this season. Nizhny Tagil is a regular World Cup host ever since 2014. In total, we have seen 6 events at this venue, so in December it will mark the 7th time Nizhny Tagil will host the World Cup event. Up until now, Severin Freund has the most wins at this venue (2). Last year, it was Andreas Wellinger who celebrated a win, with Richard Freitag at 2nd and Stefan Kraft at the 3rd place.

Athlete Pinnacle Odds Bet365 Odds Pinnacle Odds (vs the Field)
Ryoyu Kobayashi 2.27 2.25 1.588
Kamil Stoch 4.30 4.50 1.194
Andreas Wellinger 6.46 7.00 1.093
Evgeny Klimov / 16.00 /

Of course, we must start with the current leader in the World Cup standings, Ryoyu Kobayashi. This Japanese ski jumper has claimed his first 2 WC wins last week, by winning both large hill events in Ruka. He also finished 3rd in the opening event in Wisla. As of now, he is 70 points in front of Kamil Stoch in overall standings and 115 in front of Piotr Zyla. The upcoming event can he historic for Kobayashi. With a podium finish, he will become the first ski jumper in history to finish on the podium in all of the 4 opening events since Gregor Schlierenzauer in 2008/2009. Schlierenzauer also went on to win the overall title that year, so if we are a bit superstitious here, this could be a big win for Kobayashi. As for his nations records, with a win at Nizhny Tagil, Kobayashi will become the first Japanese ski jumper to claim 3 individual wins in a single season, and that is only 4 events in! With odds of 2.20 for Kobayashi to win, the odds are too low for us to consider betting on. He is without a doubt in a great form, but as said, the odds offered are simply too low for us.

Kamil Stoch is currently 70 points behind Ryoyu Kobayashi in the overall standings, he needs a win in Russia to close the gap. He finished on the podium in both events in Ruka, but that won’t be enough if he wishes to win a third World Cup title this season. The two events in Russia are a great chance for Stoch to get his 32nd and 33rd World Cup win, which would tie him with Weissflog at 5th place in all-time World Cup wins (33). Last year, he finished 15th and 7th in Nizhny Tagil. This year we will be hoping he performs better, as he has not yet claimed a first podium finish in the World Cup in Russia. His best performance at this venue was back in 2015 when Stoch finished 6th.

With his 2nd place finish in Ruka, Andreas Wellinger claimed his first podium finish in the World Cup this season. His last individual win came just a year ago, on 3rd of December 2017 at Nizhny Tagil. Interestingly enough, 4 out of 6 events in Nizhny Tagil have been won by German ski jumpers (2014/15/17/17), with the last years’ event seeing 2 german ski jumpers on the podium (Wellinger, Freitag). Bookmakers put Wellinger at 6.46 which is about fair, as he has not won an event in a year, but how much does his win at this venue add to the value? He is a good athlete, but nonetheless, we don’t think he is capable of winning here again.

Market Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
Outright Kamil Stoch 4.30 4.50  1 Unit Lost
Podium Finish Stefan Kraft / 8.00  1 Unit Lost
Podium Finish Richard Freitag / 10.00  1 Unit Lost
H2H (Johann Andre Forfang v Stefan Kraft) Stefan Kraft 2.02 2.10 1 Unit Won