Men's Downhill - Beaver Creek (USA)

Men’s Downhill – Beaver Creek (USA)

With 4 races behind us and a healthy profit of 9.09 units in Men’s events, we are heading to the USA, where Men skiers will compete in 3 events; Downhill on 30th of November, Super-G on 1st of December and Giant Slalom on the 3rd of December.

The schedule was changed due to heavy snow in Beaver Creek. Downhill, which should take place on Saturday was moved to Friday, whereas Super-G which should take place on Friday was moved to Saturday.

Looking back, the most recent event took place in Lake Louise, where we saw alpine skiers competing in Downhill race on 24th of November and in Super-G event on 25th of November. I won’t focus too much on the Super-G event, but rather on the 1st downhill event of the season. However we can still mention, Kjetil Jansrud won his 1st event in the season in Super-G, followed by Vincent Kriechmayr and Mauro Davizel at the 3rd place.

As for the downhill event, it was Max Franz who celebrated his 1st win of the season. With the time of 1:46.18, he was +0.28s faster than Christof Innerhofer and +0.54s faster than Dominik Paris. This was Max 2nd WC win in his career and the 2nd win in the downhill event. It was a great result from this Austrian athlete who ended last year at the 5th place in downhill standings. Dominik Paris can also be happy with his 3rd place, as he has added his first points to his downhill standing. Last year he finished 4th after two 3rd place finished in the downhill standings in 2016 and 2017.  The favorites; Beat Feuz and Aksel Lund Svindal both underperformed. Feuz ended 6th (+0.67), whereas Svindal ended 8th (+0.80).

Now the athletes traveled across the border to the USA, more specifically to Beaver Creek which will see a Downhill event, Super-G event and the first Giant Slalom event of men’s season. As mentioned, the Downhill race will take place on 30th of November instead of 1st December due to snow, which saw Super-G event being rescheduled. The event will take place on Bird of Prey course. The mentioned course is primarily used for the downhill event, but as mentioned it will also host Super-G and Giant Slalom event on the weekend. This course hosted it’s first WC event back in 1988 and has been a regular stop ever since. As a fun fact, I can add that the course was designed by Bernhard Russi, the former Swiss skier. Which maybe has something to do with a historic event in 2009, when Carlo Janka, Swiss skier achieved a “clean sweep”, winning all 3 events here. If there is any truth in that, we might see Beat Feuz winning here for the first time in his career. Last season, we saw Aksel Lund Svindal winning his 4th World Cup race here, with a time of 1:40.46, +0.15 faster than Beat Feuz and +0.49s faster than Thomas Dressen.

Athlete Pinnacle Odds Bet365 Odds Pinnacle Odds (vs the Field)
Aksel Lund Svindal 3.710 3.50 1.250
Kjetil Jansrud 8.68 6.00 1.127
Vincent Kriechmayr 5.13 6.00 1.142
Beat Feuz 5.46 8.00 1.127
Christof Innerhofer 11.190 15.00 1.029
Dominik Paris 11.190 15.00 1.020

Aksel Lund Svindal is considered a favorite by bookmakers, and we are frankly not surprised. He has won 4 times in Beaver Creek downhill event, which is a record. Not only has he won 4 times, but he has also won the last 2 events here. So it’s safe to say this track suits him. With another win here, he would tie a record of the most World Cup wins in one event at one ski resort. Currently, it’s Didier Cuche with 5 wins in World Cup downhill races in Kitzbüehl. Aksel Lund Svindal also holds the 5th place for the most World Cup downhill podiums in Beaver Creek (6 podiums). With a win here he could extend his winning streak in Beaver Creek to 3 consecutive downhill races and with that become the first man to do so. We expect a good finish from him, and quite frankly, a win here is highly likely for Svindal.

Max Franz won the first downhill event this season which was his 2nd career win (both in the downhill event). With his win, Austrian men have won the last 2 downhill World Cup events, well you can say, 3 Austrian men, as the last race of the last season in Are, saw both Matthias Mayer and Vincent Kriechmayr sharing the 1st place. The last Austrian men who won 2 back-to-back downhill events was Hannes Reichelt in 2015. Max Franz is a great athlete which he has shown in the 1st race, however, I do not believe he will be able to win tonight, as the competition is fierce.

Last years winner of the downhill crystal globe, Beat Feuz is still looking for his first win of the season in downhill. With his 6th place in Lake Louise, he needs to step up and perform in Beaver Creek, where he has not won a race yet. He did, however, win bronze here in 2015 World Championship and finished 2nd in World Cup downhill race in 2011, 2014 and 2017. There is no other alpine skier who achieved more podiums without a win in Beaver Creek than Feuz. What do we expect from him? In our eyes, he is more than capable of finishing in the top 3 and reach another podium.

Kjetil Jansrud has not won a downhill race last season, which was surprising, as he managed to win at least 1 race since 2013/14 season. With a total of 8 downhill wins in World Cup, he is 3rd amongst Norwegian men, only behind Lasse Kjus (10) and Aksel Lund Svindal (12). In the last downhill race, he finished 13th over a second behind Max Franz (+1.41). A 13th spot finish in Lake Louise was not impressive. We believe he is capable of showing more in Beaver Creek however a podium finish or anything more is not likely to be his result today.

Market Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
Outright Aksel Lund Svindal 3.71 3.50  1 Unit Lost
Podium Finish Beat Feuz / 3.00  1 Unit Won