Men's Downhill - Bormio (ITA)

Men’s Downhill – Bormio (ITA)

Men alpine skiers are returning to the ski slopes after Christmas break to compete at Bormio, where we will see 2 races. The first one, on 28th of December, will be a Downhill race, followed by Super-G race on 29th of December. Before the Christmas break, men competed at Madonna di Campiglio in a Slalom event, which was won by Daniel Yule after 2 of the biggest favourites made a huge mistake in the 2nd run, which, we could say freed the top 2 spots for other athletes. It was surprising to see the mistakes from Hirscher and Kristoffersen, but at the end of the day, we are all human and mistakes can happen to anyone.

As mentioned, Daniel Yule won the Slalom race, which was his 1st win in his career and a 3rd podium finish. He finished the race with an overall time of 1:38.34, 0.34s in front of Marco Schwarz and 0.50s in front of Michael Matt. For Marco Schwarz, this was his 3rd podium finish in his career, while Michael Matt added his 7th podium and 6th in the slalom events.

The last Downhill event took place in Val Gardena on 15th of December, when we saw Aleksander Aamodt Klide finishing the race 0.86s in front of Max Franz and 0.92s in front of Beat Feuz. It was a spectacular performance by Klide, who raced on a whole another level compared to other athletes, who did not manage to come even close to his time. That win marked his 3rd career and 2nd Downhill win. Max Franz finished 2nd after winning in Lake Louise. With that, he achieved his 10th podium finish in his career and 6th in Downhill events. As for Beat Feuz, the last years Downhill Crystal Globe winner, he finished the race with mixed emotions. On one hand, he achieved his 35th podium finish and is currently tied in the 1st place in Downhill standings with Max Franz, on the other hand, he witnessed a terrible crash of his teammate Marc Gisin who was taken to the hospital by helicopter. The official condition of Gisin is still unknown, however, he is in a stable condition as reported by many news networks. He will most likely not see him skiing for a while due to injuries he suffered; to his lungs, ribs, hip and spine (non-serious).
We will not provide the video of the crash due to the sensitive nature of it.

The next race, as I already mentioned will take place in Bormio, a village in the northern part of Italy, where we already saw 2 FIS Alpine Ski Championships (1985 and 2005), in addition, it regularly hosts the World Cup in late December. The ski slope on which the men will race is named “The Pista Stelvio”, which got its name from Stelvio Pass. It is considered one of the most challenging and spectacular courses in the world, and it’s the 2nd longest on the World Cup circuit. Last season, it was Paris Dominik who won the Downhill event at Bormio, only 0.04s in front of Aksel Lund Svindal and 0.17s in front of Kjetil Jansrud. Beat Feuz finished 4th, 0.31s behind the podium.

On 26th and 27th December, men completed 2 training runs at Bormio. In the first training, Christof Innerhofer finished 0.68s in front of Daniel Hemetsberger and 0.92s in front of Ryan Cochran-Siegle. In the second training, on 27th of December, Vincent Kriechmayr finished 1st, 0.04s in front of Aleksander Aamodt Kilde and 0.19s in front of Daniel Hemetsberger.

Aleksander Aamodt Kilde won the last Downhill race in Val Gardena, which was his 3rd World Cup victory and the 2nd in Downhill events. With another win here, he would become the first man to win 2 consecutive Downhill events since Aksel Lund Svindal in 2017 (Beaver Creek-Val Gardena). In this season, Kilde finished on the podium twice; 3rd place in Super-G (Beaver Creek) and 1st place in Downhill (Val Gardena). As of now, he is ranked 4th in Downhill standings 1ith 126 points, which is 74 behind leading Max Franz and Beat Feuz.

In his career, Aksel Lund Svindal has won 14 Downhill races. This season he has achieved 3 podium finishes; 3rd place in Downhill (Beaver Creek), 3rd place in Super-G (Beaver Creek) and most recently won a Super-G event in Val Gardena. As for his performance in Val Gardena Downhill race, he finished 7th, over a second behind his teammate Aleksander Aamodt Kilde (+1.08).
Last season, he finished 2nd in Bormio, 0.04s behind Dominik Paris. This course has a special meaning for Svindal, as he has won his first Championship medal here in 2005 when he finished 2nd. The odds offered on Svindal to win are at 6.50 which is quite high considering his recent performances and his result here last season. With relatively high odds, we see value in betting on Svindal to win here and reach his 2nd consecutive podium at this venue.

Max Franz alongside Beat Feuz is the only skier to record multiple podiums in the first 3 World Cup Downhill races. Franz finished 1st in the opening Downhill race in Lake Louise and achieved 2nd place in Val Gardena, where he ended the race well behind Kilde (+0.86). Looking at the last season, Franz finished 8th in Bormio, 0.88s behind Dominik Paris. With a win here, he can become the first Austrian alpine skier to win multiple men’s Downhill races in a single season since Hannes Reichelt in 2014/15. Looking at odds offered on Max Franz, we were surprised he has 7.00 offered on a podium finish. The fact that he will have to go against Svindal, Feuz, Paris and Kilde do somewhat justify the higher odds, but we believe 7.00 is still too high. A podium finish is a likely outcome and with those odds, we will gladly take the bet.

Just like in any Downhill race Beat Feuz is a favourite to finish first and Bormio Downhill race is no exception. As mentioned before, Feuz and Max Franz are the only skiers with multiple podiums in this season Downhill races. Feuz finished 1st in Beaver Creek and 3rd in Val Gardena, 0.92s too slow for another win. Last season, Feuz was the only male skier to win 3 Downhill races (Lake Louise, Wengen and Garmisch-Partenkirchen). With a win here, he can become the second Swiss man to win in Bormio since Didier Defago in 2011. We are well aware that training runs do not always show a real picture of how skiers will perform in a real race, but Feuz simply did not convince us that he will go on and win his 2nd Downhill race of the season in Bormio. Odds offered on Beat Feuz to win are currently at 6.50, which is in our opinion a fair price. Still, as mentioned we will not be betting on Feuz today.

Market Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
Outright Aksel Lund Svindal 6.53 6.50 1 Unit Lost
Podium Finish Max Franz / 7.00 1 Unit Lost