Women's Downhill - Lake Louise (CAN)

Women’s Downhill – Lake Louise (CAN)

With men finishing their Downhill and Super-G events in Lake Louise, we will watch women take on this sky slope in 2 Downhill events and Super-G event. The first downhill event will take place on 30th of November, with the second one only a day later (1st December). Super-G will be the last event here on the 2nd of December.

I have already talked about the venue in Men’s Downhill event, so instead of repeating myself we will skip that part and go straight to the last season women’s downhill and our predictions.

Last season it was Sofia Goggia, who celebrated her downhill Crystal Globe. She ended the season with 509 points, which was only 3 more than Lindsey Vonn (506). Far behind, at the 3rd place, we saw Tina Weirather with 394 points. However, I must mention both; Sofia Goggia and Lindsey Vonn won’t be competing in the next event due to injuries. This is a huge loss but on the other hand a good chance for other skiers to grab their first points of the season. The dominance from Vonn and Goggia in the downhill race can be explained in the next sentence; the last woman to win a World Cup downhill race was Mikaela Shiffrin in the 2nd race at Lake Louise last season. In other words, no other skier won a downhill race in a year! But this will change today.

Rank 2017–18 FIS Alpine Ski World Cup – after all 8 Downhill races Points
1 Italy Sofia Goggia 509
2 United States Lindsey Vonn 506
3 Liechtenstein Tina Weirather 394
4 Austria Cornelia Hütter 272
5 United States Mikaela Shiffrin 256

Now with 2 of the best downhill skiers out of the picture, the question remains who will step up and win the first downhill event of the season?

Athlete Pinnacle Odds Bet365 Odds Pinnacle Odds (vs the Field)
Mikaela Shiffrin / 5.00 /
Tina Weirather / 5.00 /
Ilka Stuhec / 8.00 /
Cornelia Huetter / 8.00 /

Pinnacle odds not available at the time this post went online.

Mikaela Shiffrin, finished 5th in downhill standings last year, with a total of 256 points. Her only downhill win last season came from the 2nd Lake Louise race, where she beat Viktoria Rebensburg and Michelle Gisin. She is one of the few women to achieve multiple downhill World Cup podiums other than Sofia Goggia and Lindsey Vonn. In her career, Mikaela Shiffrin won only 1 downhill race and with Sofia Goggia and Lindsey Vonn out of the picture for the upcoming event she does have a great chance in front of her to finish in an excellent spot. We do not believe she can finish 1st, however, we can see her standing on the podium today.

Tina Weirather was ranked 3rd in last year downhill standings, she, just like Shiffrin achieved 3 podiums in downhill events in 2017/18 season. In total, she achieved 14 World Cup downhill podiums, with a record 5 in Lake Louise. She however only won 1 downhill race in her career, back in 2015 at Garmisch-Partenkirchen. With her 5 podium finishes here, she can become the first woman to finish on the podium in Lake Louise more than 5 times without winning the downhill race. Last year, Tina Weirather could have won more downhill races, only if Sofia Goggia and Lindsey Vonn somehow disappeared… and for the upcoming race, they kind of did. Without Goggia and Vonn, Tina Weirather is without a doubt a favorite to win this one. Last year she accumulated 394 points in downhill standings, which was 115 less that Goggia. On the other side, she had 122 points more than 4th placed Cornelia Hütter. The gap between the athletes tells it’s own story. Expect Tina Weirather to win or at least reach the podium.

If we look back at 2016 season, Ilka Stuhec won both downhill events in Lake Louise and with a win here, she would join the 5 women who won Lake Louise downhill event 3 times or more; Lindsey Vonn (14), Maria Höfl-Reich (5), Isolde Kostner (4), Carole Montillet-Carles (3) and Katja Seizinger (3). Stuhec convincingly won the downhill Crystal Globe in 2016/17 season, with 137 points more than 2nd places Sofia Goggia. However, she missed the whole last season due to injury. This will be her chance to make a great return to the new season if she manages to repeat her success from 2016/17 season and win here. As of now, she is tied with Tina Maze with 4 World Cup downhill wins, which is the most out of all woman representing Slovenia. A win would be a perfect result for this returning champion, but we have not seen her compete just yet. We believe she can win, still, we will predict a top 3 finish for Ilka Stuhec.

Ragnhild Mowinckel won a silver medal in the Olympic games but had not yet finished on the podium in the World Cup downhill event. Her best result is a 6th place in Cortina d’Ampezzo (twice) and Garmisch-Partenkirschen. Last year she finished 8th in downhill standings, which is her best result up until now. However, she is still looking for her 1st downhill win. In 2017/18 season Ragnhild Mowinckel finished 26th and 10th in Lake Louise. With a podium finish here, she would break the Norwegian drought, of no World Cup downhill podium finish since 1999, when Ingeborg Helen Marken finished 2nd in the Sierra Nevada.

Viktoria Rebensburg has 5 World Cup downhill podiums in her career, with her most recent one coming from Lake Louise last season. As of now, she had 5 downhill podium finished in her career and despite having 16 World Cup wins (14 Giant Slalom, 2 Super-G) she has not won a downhill event yet. There are only 5 women who finished on the podium in a downhill event more times without a win; Annie Famose (9), Carole Merle (9), Anna Veith (8), Veronika Stallmaier-Wallinger (7) and Florence Steurer (6). Last season, she finished 7th in the downhill standings, however, she has won the Giant Slalom Crystal Globe, and ended 3rd in the overall standings.

Market Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
Outright Tina Weirather / 5.00  1 Unit Lost
Podium Finish Tina Weirather / 2.10 1 Unit Lost
Podium Finish Ilka Stuhec / 2.75 1 Unit Lost
Podium Finish Mikaela Shiffrin / 2.10 1 Unit Lost