Women's Super-G - Lake Louise (CAN)

Women’s Super-G – Lake Louise (CAN)

What a couple of days we have behind us, with Nicole Schmidhofer taking both wins in Downhill events. I was wrong once again in the last preview, as I expected her 1st performance was just “lucky” for a lack of a better word, however, she proved me wrong once again. Today we will be focusing on super-G event, which will be the final race in Lake Louise this season. The most recent event (downhill), as mentioned was won by Nicole Schmidhofer, who was almost half of a second faster than 2nd placed Cornelia Huetter (+0.44). At third place, we saw Michelle Gisin (+0.47).

As for Super-G events, the upcoming event will be the first one of this discipline this season. So let’s take a look at last season’s Super-G event at this venue. Last Year’s Super-G in Lake Louise took place on 3rd December 2017, and it was Tina Weirather who celebrated her 1st win of the season. Close behind her finished Lara Gut (+0.11) and on the 3rd place, it was Nicole Schmidhofer (+0.27) who achieved her 1st podium finish of the season. The last Super-G event we saw happened on 15th March in Are. That event was won by Sofia Goggia, followed by Viktoria Rebensburg (+0.32) and Lindsey Vonn at the 3rd place (+0.53). In the upcoming race, Sofia Goggia and Lindsey Vonn won’t be competing due to an injury. Goggia is expected to race again in January, as for Vonn, we can not say for sure. On the bright side, Vonn decided to postpone her retirement to 2019 season, simply because she won’t be able to race in Lake Louise. For some, it may sound strange, but she does feel a special connection with this place. At the end of the day, the locals call it Lake Lindsey, which as we might expect is meaningful to Lindsey Vonn.

Now let’s look at our favorites to win the first Super-G event of the season for women.

Tina Weirather has won 2 consecutive Super-G crystal globes. With another crystal globe this year she would become the first woman to win 3 in a row since Lindsey Vonn in 2012. Looking at last season, she was the only woman to win multiple Super-G events, one of which she achieved at Lake Louise, whereas the other win came from Crans-Montana. In her career, Tina Weirather won 7 Super-G events, which is just 1 shy of the 7th place in all-time standings among women. As for her performances in Lake Louise, she has achieved a total of 3 World Cup podiums at this venue. This race will be a great chance for her to start working her way to her 3rd Crystal Globe. We expect her to perform just as well as last season at this venue, which translates to Tina Weirather winning her 1st event of the season.

Last season, Lara Gut-Behrami finished 2nd in Super-G standings, 87 points behind Tina Weirather. The last time Lara Gut-Behrami won a crystal globe in Super-G, it was in 2016 and 2014. With 2 Super-G Crystal globes with her name on it, she will be chasing the 3rd this season, however, the return of Ilka Stuhec might make this task a bit harder. With her 12 World Cup Super-G wins in her career, she is joint-fourth among women with Carole Merle. Lara Gut-Behrami has won twice in Lake Louise, which is only 1 shy of record 3 held by Lindsey Vonn. We expect Lara Gut-Behrami to once again perform well in Lake Louise, however, odds offered are too low for us to consider betting on her.

Federica Brignone finished last season 6th in the Super-G standings, 3rd in Alpine combined and 11th in Overall standings. With her 9 wins in World Cup, 2 of them came from Super-G events. In her career, she has recorded 3 podium finishes in Super-G which is 3rd most among Italian women. This season, she has won the giant slalom race in Killington and finished 2nd in Sölden, which puts her at a leading position in giant slalom and at 2nd spot in overall standings. Federica Brignone has competed in Lake Louise only once in her career, back in 2016, which does not give us a good insight into how she performs here. However, despite only 3 podium finishes in Super-G, she finished close to a top 3 spot several times, with only a fraction of a second separating her from the podium, that is why we expect her to finish high today. That might not mean she will win, but a podium finish is likely to happen. With odds of 5.00 for Brignone to finish on the podium, the odds on her are just too good to pass on.

Michelle Gisin finished her last season 4th in Super-G standings, with 1 podium finish in St. Moritz (2nd place). In her career, she has finished on the podium 4 times, however, has not yet won a race. Much like Brignone, Gisin has finished just under the podium on several occasions and being that this is the 3rd season she is competing in super-g (41st in 2017, 4th in 2018) we expect her to be a strong contender today. Odds on her to finish on the podium are too low for us to take (2.75), however, despite strong competition, we do believe she just might surprise everyone and win her first event of the season and her career.

Market Prediction Pinnacle Odds Bet 365 Odds Stake Won / Lost
Outright Tina Weirather / 5.00  2 Units Lost
Podium Finish Federica Brignone / 5.00  2 Unit Lost